Will alternative fuels deplete global corn supplies?

There's a certain poetic irony to the idea of modern society breaking free from its dependence on dwindling fossil fuels only to starve millions due to ethanol production. After all, it falls right in line with our human habit of trading one vice for another. We quit drinking and just wind up buying more cigarettes. We beat our nicotine addictions only to rediscover junk food. It seems only natural that humanity might take an unsustainable thirst for petroleum and exchange it for an equally ravenous hunger for ethanol.

In 2008, rising food costs resulted in government tariffs, trade restrictions and social unrest in parts of the developing world. Food riots in Haiti even proved lethal. Food prices had tripled in the previous three years, and financial forecasts called for an additional 7 percent rise in 2009 [source: Fox News]. When it came to placing blame, no single scapegoat presented itself. Rather, a host of reasons for the spiraling costs of food presented themselves, including increased consumption, floods, droughts, pests, rising petroleum costs and a struggling global economy.

The most talked-about culprit, however, was the increased demand for biofuels such as ethanol. Ethanol is typically made from varieties of corn you'd never find on your dinner plate. These varieties of inedible corn are instead intended for use as livestock feed or the production of high fructose corn syrup. So ethanol eats up corn that could otherwise support the meat industry or, to a lesser extent, the nutrient-free world of candy and sodas. In addition, those same fields could be used to grow edible corn and other food crops.

In the United States, the demand for corn rose from 10.6 billion bushels in 2004 to an estimated 12.7 billion bushels in 2008 [source: Christopherson]. Over those four years, food demand slid from 7.6 to 6.7 billion bushels, while ethanol demand rose from 1.2 to 4 billion bushels [source: Christopherson]. As the United States produces between 60 and 70 percent of world corn exports, this kind of fluctuation can have quite an impact, such as influencing April 2008's record high price of $6.03 per bushel, up 30 percent from the beginning of the year [source: Gioia].

Those are some frightening figures, especially if you live in a country where a large­ percentage of your income goes to ensure your food supply. Some analysts, however, think change is just around the corner.

A lot of the world depends on U.S. corn exports, and it doesn't take a genius to realize the potential dangers of the corn sector catering increasingly to the ethanol industry. The more corn that's grown exclusively for the biofuel industry, the less there is to feed people and livestock.

­Biofuel manufacturers and advocates attempt to dispel these fears by saying that their industry is ­still in a very early stage. They point to a future where, instead of turning potential food crops into fuel, we'll process inedible agriculture waste. If this happens, corn ethanol of the future may be produced from stems and stalks, while the actual corncobs go on to feed hungry mouths.

Others argue that future biofuel called cellulosic ethanol will be made from fast-growing trees and switch grass. Critics of this move, such as Eric Holt-Giménez, director of the Food First Institute for Food and Development Policy, contend that this approach amounts to more of a "faith in science" than actual science, and that the sustainability of cellulosic ethanol isn't a foregone conclusion. Cellulosic ethanol is still several years and various technological advancements away -- and even then it might not give us the carbon savings we're hoping for. Holt-Giménez says that, by perpetuating the idea that second-generation biofuels will save the day, manufacturers make it socially acceptable to pit fuel production against food production.

Whatever we choose to do in the long run, there's still the short-term possibility of a depleted global corn supply to consider. Amid government subsidies for corn farmers and recent rising crop prices, some foresee a future where our dependence on corn breaks us, while others predict that it will be the corn industry that goes bust.

Toward the end of 2008, the corn industry seemed more inclined to bust. Corn futures took a sharp dive, landing nearly 51 percent below their all-time high in June of the same year. Analysts placed the blame on several factors, including a fall in crude oil prices, which had reached an 18-month low, and hurting demand for alternative fuels [source: Inside Futures].

Still other corn critics predict that concerns over rising health care costs will force a large-scale dietary move away from high fructose corn syrup, which accounts for 10 percent of the calories Americans consume [source: Christopherson]. Factor in the milled corn in junk food, and corn products stack up to be a leading cause of obesity and diabetes. Even if Americans don't rise up against junk food, there have already been rumblings that major soda manufacturers may switch from HFCS to sugar, due to corn's costs and sugar's greener profile [source: Rano].

The ethanol industry hasn't depleted global corn supplies yet, but it has put a strain on them. Going forward, the industry faces an uncertain future. Is cellulosic ethanol right around the corner? Will the ethanol industry continue to slide due to lower demands? Only time will tell.

Explore the links on the next page to learn more about ethanol, corn and the global food market.­